Hurricane Ike 9/9/08 Update

It seems now that the major models (except the HWRF) are coming into better agreement on the final landfall of Ike.

• GFS: South Padre Island, Texas on Friday evening as a category one hurricane with 85 mph winds.
• GFDL: La Barrita, Mexico (just south of the border) on Friday night as a category four hurricane with 140 mph winds.
• HWRF: Port Aransas, Texas on Friday night as a category four hurricane with 135 mph winds.
• NOGAPS: San Jose, Mexico (about 30 miles south of the border) as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds.

The major outlier on track appears to be the HWRF and the outlier on intensity is the NOGAPS. Accounting for the HWRF's decent performance on Hurricane Gustav and on other occassions, my forecast is a little north of the GFDL and GFS.

As far as intensity, I think Ike will be a little stronger than the models' indications due to the fact that Ike will pass over both the loop current and warm core eddy. I went just below the GFDL's forecast for my intensity prediction.

• Location and Timing: Wilacy County, Texas (10 miles north of South Padre Island) on Friday night.
• Intensity: 130 mph (category four)

Potential Margin of Error:

• Location: Tampico, Mexico to Galveston, Texas.
• Timing: Between 6 pm Friday and 6 am Saturday
• Intensity: 110 mph to 150 mph (category two to four)

All people along the western Gulf Coast, especially in Texas and Mexico, should monitor the progress of Ike through products issued by the National Weather Service and/or local media for decisions regarding the protection of life and property. This is an unofficial forecast!

Hurricane Watches will likely be issued on Wednesday or Thursday for portions of the Texas and Mexico coasts.