Hurricane Ike

Just one week after Hurricane Gustav made landfall in Louisiana as a category two hurricane, all eyes shift to Hurricane Ike, located over eastern Cuba as of this post. Here is my unofficial prediction on Ike.

Unfortunately, it appears that a Gulf Coast landfall is likely at this time. The only thing that would prevent this is if Ike would break up over Cuba, which is highly unlikely.

Models seem to be in good agreement that Ike's final landfall will be between Matagorda Bay, Texas and Mobile, Alabama, which means that the storm weary Louisiana could be facing another hurricane during the next week or so. Here is an analysis of my four favorite models:

GFS:

• Entering the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon as a 60-mph tropical storm west of Havana, Cuba.
• Continue on a northwesterly track through Thursday afternoon before turning more westerly. This westerly track continues through Friday afternoon when Ike takes a turn towards the north into a weakness in a high pressure.
• FINAL LANFALL: Cameron Parish, Louisiana as a category one hurricane with 95 mph winds on Saturday afternoon.

GFDL:

• Entering the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon as a category two hurricane with 100 mph winds, east of Havana, Cuba.
• Continues on a northwesterly track through Thursday afternoon before turning more west-northwesterly. This west-northwesterly motion would be short-lived before Ike feels a more northwesterly pull.
• FINAL LANDFALL: Vermilion Parish, Louisiana as a category two hurricane with 100 mph winds on Friday afternoon.

HWRF:

• Entering the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon as a category two hurricane with 100 mph winds, near Havana, Cuba.
• Continues on a northwesterly track before turning more westerly on Tuesday night. The northwesterly motion would resume on Thursday afternoon then become more northerly on Friday afternoon.
• FINAL LANDFALL: Cameron Parish, Louisiana as a category three hurricane with 120 mph winds on Friday night.

NOGAPS:

• Entering the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds, east of Havana, Cuba.
• Continues on a northwesterly track until landfall.
• FINAL LANFALL: Morgan City, Louisiana as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds on Saturday afternoon.

My analysis:

Track: It appears that there is good agreement in Ike entering the Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of Havana, Cuba on Tuesday afternoon. One of the major factors will be how much a westerly turn will Ike take and how long will westerly motion last. The GFS and HWRF take the track farther to the left (south and west) while the GFDL and NOGAPS take the track farther to the right (north and east). Interestingly, the models are in better agreement farther out in the forecast than in the short term. All four models mentioned above are showing a Louisiana landfall between noon Friday and noon Saturday between Cameron, LA and Morgan City, LA.

Intensity: While it is in my opinion that the NOGAPS weakens Ike too much over the mountainous terrain of Cuba, this amount of weakening is not out of the question. Ike is expected to stay over Cuba for about 48 hours, which could have a major impact on intensity. The only problem is, if Ike moves farther north (into the Florida Straits) or south (into the northern Caribbean Sea) than forecast, a much lesser weakening will occur. It is in my opinion that Ike will enter the Gulf of Mexico as a minimal category one hurricane (i.e. 75-80 mph winds). Once Ike enters the Gulf, he is forecast by all major models to pass over the loop current (an area of sea surface temperatures over 85 F). Also, wind shear is forecast to be low. This means that intensification, possibly rapid, is expected over the southeastern Gulf. The indication at this time is a category one or two hurricane.

Bottom Line:

• To early to tell where, when, and how bad Ike will be at final landfall.
• Models are subject to large error and eventual shift. Use the National Hurricane Center forecast for official information!
• Landfall in Louisiana or Texas this weekend (possibly as early as Friday afternoon and as late as Saturday night).
• There is a 90% chance that Ike will contain winds of at least 80 mph at landfall and a 10% chance that Ike will contain winds of at least 125 mph at landfall. This is an average of about 100-105 mph (category two). This is similar to Hurricane Gustav.

If this discussion causes you any confusion, please disregard it. This is merely my opinion and I AM NOT AN EXPERT (yet)! Again, please use the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center for decisions regarding the protection of life and property!

Feel free to post comments or your opinion on Ike by clicking on the "Comments" link below. Please be G-rated, do not wishcast, and don't use your gut-feeling! Try to be technical. : )