Not in the Clear from Dean

While the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida calls for Hurricane Dean to move across the Yucatan Peninsula then into either south Texas or north Mexico, the northern Gulf id by no means in the clear yet. There are several reasons:

1. A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas is forecast to move west, causing a slight weakening of the high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This could cause Dean to move farther north than forecast.
2. The forecast will not be especially confident until Dean enters the Gulf of Mexico. Models and forecasters do not usually get a good handle on a tropical cyclone until it enters the next body of water. In this case, the Gulf of Mexico. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina was originally forecast to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle but instead made landfall near 250 miles west at the Louisiana-Mississippi border.
3. Hurricane forecasts for days 3 - 5 are HISTORICALLY to far to the west. In 2005, Hurricane Rita was originally supposed to make landfall near Port O'Connor, Texas but instead made landfall at the Louisiana-Texas border. In 2006, Tropical Storm Ernesto was originally forecast to make landfall in Mississippi or Alabama but instead made landfall on the southern tip of Florida as it moved north-northeastwards.
4. Tropical cyclone forecasts for days 3 - 5 can have very large errors. According to the National Hurricane Center, the average error for day three forecasts is 205 miles, 290 miles for day four, and 375 miles for day five. For perspective 300 miles is roughly the distance from Baton Rouge, LA to Houston, TX. This means that if for example a hurricane was forecast to landfall near Grand Isle, LA, it could very well end up as far west as Galveston, Texas or as far east as Destin, Florida.

The best advice I can give Gulf Coast residents is to continue monitoring Dean and go over your disaster and evacuation plans.