NOAA Lowers its 2007 Hurricane Forecast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has reduced its predictions for the number of hurricanes for this year. The new prediction calls for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one with category three intensity or higher. This forecast is down from the previous forecast with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The average numbers between 1950 and 2000 are 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes each season.

So far this year we have seen three named storms:

• Subtropical Storm Andrea: a weak subtropical storm that formed on May 9 that meandered off the coast of Florida producing high winds and seas over the Atlantic Ocean between Virginia and Florida.
• Tropical Storm Barry: a moderate tropical storms that formed on June 1 and made landfall near Tampa, Florida as a weakening tropical depression. The remnants of Barry killed one person Pinellas County near Saint Petersburg, Florida.
• Tropical Storm Chantal: a weak tropical storm that formed between Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts that rapidly became a powerful extratropical cyclone as it moved over the Atlantic Canadian provinces.

Last year we saw 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The strongest storms were Hurricanes Gordon and Helene which both reached a peak intensity of 120 MPH winds (category three) over the open waters of the Atlantic. The most significant storm to affect the United States was Hurricane Ernesto which made landfall at Plantation Key, Florida with 45 MPH winds. The storm caused minor damage in Florida. The storm made a second landfall at Oak Island, North Carolina as a strong tropical storm with 70 MPH winds. In the mid-Atlantic states, Ernesto caused four deaths and about $500 million in damages.

Remember that an active season is still anticipated and the bulk of activity does not generally get started until mid-August and lasts through late September. Also remember that it only takes one storm to have a bad season. In 1992, there were only 6 named storms and 1 major hurricane. That major hurricane was Category Five Hurricane Andrew which devastated large areas of the Miami Metropolitan Area and remained the most destructive hurricane in history until Hurricane Katrina in 2005 broke its record.