Hurricane Ike: 9/8/08 Update

Edit: Landfall prediction corrected at 10:13 pm CDT 9/8 to remove extra wording and to include information on the shifts in each model.

It appears that there has been a significant shift in the models during the last 24 hours. The shift consisted of an average track-shift of about 425 miles and an intensity shift of about +13 mph. Here is an outline of the major models' predictions on final landfall location and intensity:

• GFS: South Padre Island, TX on Friday evening as a category two hurricane with 100 mph winds. This is a location shift of about 500 miles and an intensity shift of +5 mph.
• GFDL: Rockport, TX (up the coast from Corpus Christi) on Friday evening as a category three hurricane with 120 mph winds. This is a location shift of about 400 miles and an intensity shift of about +20 mph (category two to category three).
• HWRF: Corpus Christi, TX on Friday evening as a category four hurricane with 135 mph winds. This is a location shift of about 300 miles and an intensity shift of 15 mph (category three to category four).
• NOGAPS: About 60 miles south of the US-Mexico border on Saturday morning as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. This is a location shift of about 550 miles and an intensity shift of +10 mph.

The major outlier appears to be the NOGAPS model (on intensity and track). The National Hurricane Center said in their 10:00 pm CDT discussion that they were leaning a little more towards the GFS (though the official track is a little north of it) because it tends to have a better handle on the synoptic-scale weather events that will have an impact on Ike's eventual track. As far as intensity goes, the HWRF's prediction of 135 mph winds is not out of the question. All models forecast Ike to move over the notorious loop current (sea surface temperatures at or above 85 F) and shear will be low. This could allow for rapid intensification. Also, the southern three-quarters of the Gulf of Mexico are much warmer than the northern quarter. Lastly, a warm spot is located along the forecast track of Ike near 24.5 N, 90.0 W. This would allow additional intensification of Ike.

My unofficial forecast calls for landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas, Friday night, as a category three hurricane.

Margin of Error:

• Landfall: between the Louisiana-Texas border and La Pesca, Mexico (about 170 miles south of the border)
• Timing: 6 pm Friday through 6 am Saturday
• Intensity: 100 - 140 mph winds (category two through four)

People along the Gulf Coast, especially Louisiana, Texas, and northeastern Mexico, should monitor the progress of Ike and refer to products issued by the National Weather Service and/or local media outlets. This forecast is unofficial and should not be used for decisions regarding the protection of life and property!