Tropical Storm Kyle/Carolina Storm System

Tropical Storm Kyle, the eleventh named storm of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season, has formed from the area of low pressure that was being monitored north of Hispaniola. The storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Intensification is forecast as Kyle moves towards the north. Kyle is forecast to make landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia as a category one hurricane before losing its tropical characteristics on Saturday and Sunday. Interests in Bermuda, Cape Cod, the coast of Maine, and Maritime Canada need to monitor the progress of Kyle.

A powerful, non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to bring squally weather to the coast of the Carolinas and Virginia during the next few days. Strong winds, heavy rains, and coastal flooding is expected with this system.

System off the coast of the Carolinas (NOAA image)

Why Hurricane Season is Like Christmas

This is a funny email that someone sent me. People who have dealt with hurricanes can probably relate to this. Enjoy!

Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season Is Like Christmas
Number Ten: Decorating the house (with plywood).
Number Nine: Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since lastseason.
Number Eight: Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
Number Seven: Regular TV shows pre-empted for 'Specials'.
Number Six: Family coming to stay with you.
Number Five: Family and friends from out of state calling you.
Number Four: Buying food you don't normally buy . . . and in large quantities.
Number Three: Days off from work.
Number Two: Candles.
And the Number One reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas: At some point you're probably going to have a tree in your house!

JWC Weather Data from Hurricane Ike

Now that the anemometer has been moved to 25 feet above ground level and 5 feet above the highest point on the roof, there is some good data from JWC. There was one gust to tropical storm force (greater than 39 mph/35 knots). Here is a summary of that data:

• Storm Total Rainfall: 1.52 inches (9/12-13)
• Peak Sustained Winds (10-minute): 15 mph (13 knots) from the SSW at 12:00 pm, 12:30 pm, 2:30 pm, and 3:50 pm 9/13
• Peak Wind Gust: 42 mph (37 knots) from the SSW at 12:00 pm on 9/13
• Lowest Pressure: 29.53 in Hg (1000.1 mb) at 5:05 pm on 9/12
  

A detailed report on Hurricane Ike will be released during the next week or so.

12:00 am Update on Ike

Ike is currently located about 35 miles south-southeast of Galveston, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph. This makes Ike a category two hurricane. Landfall is expected to occur near Galveston during the next few hours. Storm surges in excess of 20 feet will be possible near and to the east of where the center of Ike makes landfall. Also, sustained winds of 90 to 100 mph with gusts as high as 120 mph will be possible across Galveston and Chambers Counties as Ike approaches landfall.

People in the Houston-Galveston Area should hunker down and ride out the storm. It is too late to leave! Stay in an interior room away from windows. Treat these extreme winds like a tornado. Good luck and Godspeed to all people in the path of Ike. It is going to be a long, rough night.

9:00 pm CDT Position Estimate

The center of Hurricane Ike was located near 28.5 north, 94.3 west, or about 65 miles south-southeast of Galveston, Texas. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph. This makes Ike a category two hurricane.

The new peak wind gust at Jason's Weather Center is 36 mph. The storm total rainfall is 0.90 inches. The barometric pressure is 1001.7 millibars and rising.

Sustained winds to 55 mph were reported at Galveston Island. More information will be posted later this evening.

Strong Rain Band in Lafayette/More Storm Reports

A strong rain band just passed through Lafayette, dropping 0.28 inches of rain in about 15 minutes! The highest wind gust remains at 32 mph. The barometric pressure is 1000.3 mb and rising. The pressure is rising because the center of Ike is beginning to move southwest of Lafayette (farther away). Here are some new storm reports:

• Tornado in Mamou, LA in Evangeline Parish damaged 10-15 homes. Local law enforcement reports that one person has been injured and search and rescue continues (4:30 pm).
• Possible tornado near Gueydan, LA in Vermilion Parish (4:41 pm).
• A weather station at Rollover Pass in Chambers County, TX reported sustained winds of 38 mph with gusts to 64 mph (5:00 pm).
• Possible tornado near Lacamp, LA in Vernon Parish (5:06 pm).
• Tornado reported by HAM Radio operator in Slagle, LA in Vernon Parish (5:10 pm).
• Louisiana Highway 83 at the Saint Mary-Iberia Parish Line has a lane blocked due to high water (storm surge) south of Lydia (5:39 pm).

Be sure to watch The Weather Channel tonight as they have coverage in Galveston, Houston, Freeport, and Port Arthur on the Texas coast. It's going to be a wild ride for them!

*Edited at 6:28 pm to reword the title of the post.

4:00 pm 9/12 Position Estimate

The center of Hurricane Ike was located near 28.2 north, 73.8 west, or about 100 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph. The forecast calls for Ike to make landfall near Galveston, Texas around 1:00 am Friday night as a category two hurricane with 110 mph winds.

The next advisory will be issued at 7:00 pm and the next forecast will be issued at 10:00 pm.

Ike poised to make landfall near Galveston

The 4:00 pm CDT forecast from the National Hurricane Center still shows Ike making landfall near Galveston, Texas around 1:00 am tonight as a category two hurricane with 110 mph winds. Due to Ike's large size, the effects will be far reaching. There have already been some reports of levee failures as far east as Plaquemines and Terrebonne Parishes in southeastern Louisiana. Here are some reports received by the National Weather Service so far:

1. Tropical storm force winds have been reported across much of southern Louisiana, mainly south of Interstate 10. Gusts to tropical storm force have been reported as far inland as Alexandria, Louisiana. The highest gust so far is 69 mph at New Orleasn Lakefront Airport.
2. A three-foot storm surge is flooding some areas along Lake Charles in Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana.
3. An eight-foot storm surge is producing significant inundation in Cameron Parish.
4. A seven-foot storm surge is producing significant inundation in southern Jefferson and Orange Counties in Texas.
5. An eight-foot storm surge along Vermilion Bay has cut off Burns and Cypremort Point. Water is approaching Franklin.
6. A nine-foot storm surge is occurring along Galveston Island.
7. A six-foot storm surge is occurring in Galveston Bay.
8. An eight-foot storm surge is occurring at Freeport, Texas.
9. Strong winds have blown down trees and power lines in the towns of Pumpkin Center, Natalbany, and Hammond in Tangipahoa Parish.
10. A six-foot storm surge was observed at the Port of New Orleans.

So far, the highest wind gust at Jason's Weather Center in Lafayette, Louisiana is 32 mph. The storm total rainfall is 0.29 inches. The lowest recorded pressure is 1000 millibars (29.53 in Hg) and still falling.

I will continue to post updates on this blog whenever I can.

Hurricane Ike 9/9/08 Update

It seems now that the major models (except the HWRF) are coming into better agreement on the final landfall of Ike.

• GFS: South Padre Island, Texas on Friday evening as a category one hurricane with 85 mph winds.
• GFDL: La Barrita, Mexico (just south of the border) on Friday night as a category four hurricane with 140 mph winds.
• HWRF: Port Aransas, Texas on Friday night as a category four hurricane with 135 mph winds.
• NOGAPS: San Jose, Mexico (about 30 miles south of the border) as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds.

The major outlier on track appears to be the HWRF and the outlier on intensity is the NOGAPS. Accounting for the HWRF's decent performance on Hurricane Gustav and on other occassions, my forecast is a little north of the GFDL and GFS.

As far as intensity, I think Ike will be a little stronger than the models' indications due to the fact that Ike will pass over both the loop current and warm core eddy. I went just below the GFDL's forecast for my intensity prediction.

• Location and Timing: Wilacy County, Texas (10 miles north of South Padre Island) on Friday night.
• Intensity: 130 mph (category four)

Potential Margin of Error:

• Location: Tampico, Mexico to Galveston, Texas.
• Timing: Between 6 pm Friday and 6 am Saturday
• Intensity: 110 mph to 150 mph (category two to four)

All people along the western Gulf Coast, especially in Texas and Mexico, should monitor the progress of Ike through products issued by the National Weather Service and/or local media for decisions regarding the protection of life and property. This is an unofficial forecast!

Hurricane Watches will likely be issued on Wednesday or Thursday for portions of the Texas and Mexico coasts.

Hurricane Ike: 9/8/08 Update

Edit: Landfall prediction corrected at 10:13 pm CDT 9/8 to remove extra wording and to include information on the shifts in each model.

It appears that there has been a significant shift in the models during the last 24 hours. The shift consisted of an average track-shift of about 425 miles and an intensity shift of about +13 mph. Here is an outline of the major models' predictions on final landfall location and intensity:

• GFS: South Padre Island, TX on Friday evening as a category two hurricane with 100 mph winds. This is a location shift of about 500 miles and an intensity shift of +5 mph.
• GFDL: Rockport, TX (up the coast from Corpus Christi) on Friday evening as a category three hurricane with 120 mph winds. This is a location shift of about 400 miles and an intensity shift of about +20 mph (category two to category three).
• HWRF: Corpus Christi, TX on Friday evening as a category four hurricane with 135 mph winds. This is a location shift of about 300 miles and an intensity shift of 15 mph (category three to category four).
• NOGAPS: About 60 miles south of the US-Mexico border on Saturday morning as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. This is a location shift of about 550 miles and an intensity shift of +10 mph.

The major outlier appears to be the NOGAPS model (on intensity and track). The National Hurricane Center said in their 10:00 pm CDT discussion that they were leaning a little more towards the GFS (though the official track is a little north of it) because it tends to have a better handle on the synoptic-scale weather events that will have an impact on Ike's eventual track. As far as intensity goes, the HWRF's prediction of 135 mph winds is not out of the question. All models forecast Ike to move over the notorious loop current (sea surface temperatures at or above 85 F) and shear will be low. This could allow for rapid intensification. Also, the southern three-quarters of the Gulf of Mexico are much warmer than the northern quarter. Lastly, a warm spot is located along the forecast track of Ike near 24.5 N, 90.0 W. This would allow additional intensification of Ike.

My unofficial forecast calls for landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas, Friday night, as a category three hurricane.

Margin of Error:

• Landfall: between the Louisiana-Texas border and La Pesca, Mexico (about 170 miles south of the border)
• Timing: 6 pm Friday through 6 am Saturday
• Intensity: 100 - 140 mph winds (category two through four)

People along the Gulf Coast, especially Louisiana, Texas, and northeastern Mexico, should monitor the progress of Ike and refer to products issued by the National Weather Service and/or local media outlets. This forecast is unofficial and should not be used for decisions regarding the protection of life and property!

Hurricane Ike

Just one week after Hurricane Gustav made landfall in Louisiana as a category two hurricane, all eyes shift to Hurricane Ike, located over eastern Cuba as of this post. Here is my unofficial prediction on Ike.

Unfortunately, it appears that a Gulf Coast landfall is likely at this time. The only thing that would prevent this is if Ike would break up over Cuba, which is highly unlikely.

Models seem to be in good agreement that Ike's final landfall will be between Matagorda Bay, Texas and Mobile, Alabama, which means that the storm weary Louisiana could be facing another hurricane during the next week or so. Here is an analysis of my four favorite models:

GFS:

• Entering the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon as a 60-mph tropical storm west of Havana, Cuba.
• Continue on a northwesterly track through Thursday afternoon before turning more westerly. This westerly track continues through Friday afternoon when Ike takes a turn towards the north into a weakness in a high pressure.
• FINAL LANFALL: Cameron Parish, Louisiana as a category one hurricane with 95 mph winds on Saturday afternoon.

GFDL:

• Entering the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon as a category two hurricane with 100 mph winds, east of Havana, Cuba.
• Continues on a northwesterly track through Thursday afternoon before turning more west-northwesterly. This west-northwesterly motion would be short-lived before Ike feels a more northwesterly pull.
• FINAL LANDFALL: Vermilion Parish, Louisiana as a category two hurricane with 100 mph winds on Friday afternoon.

HWRF:

• Entering the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon as a category two hurricane with 100 mph winds, near Havana, Cuba.
• Continues on a northwesterly track before turning more westerly on Tuesday night. The northwesterly motion would resume on Thursday afternoon then become more northerly on Friday afternoon.
• FINAL LANDFALL: Cameron Parish, Louisiana as a category three hurricane with 120 mph winds on Friday night.

NOGAPS:

• Entering the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds, east of Havana, Cuba.
• Continues on a northwesterly track until landfall.
• FINAL LANFALL: Morgan City, Louisiana as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds on Saturday afternoon.

My analysis:

Track: It appears that there is good agreement in Ike entering the Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of Havana, Cuba on Tuesday afternoon. One of the major factors will be how much a westerly turn will Ike take and how long will westerly motion last. The GFS and HWRF take the track farther to the left (south and west) while the GFDL and NOGAPS take the track farther to the right (north and east). Interestingly, the models are in better agreement farther out in the forecast than in the short term. All four models mentioned above are showing a Louisiana landfall between noon Friday and noon Saturday between Cameron, LA and Morgan City, LA.

Intensity: While it is in my opinion that the NOGAPS weakens Ike too much over the mountainous terrain of Cuba, this amount of weakening is not out of the question. Ike is expected to stay over Cuba for about 48 hours, which could have a major impact on intensity. The only problem is, if Ike moves farther north (into the Florida Straits) or south (into the northern Caribbean Sea) than forecast, a much lesser weakening will occur. It is in my opinion that Ike will enter the Gulf of Mexico as a minimal category one hurricane (i.e. 75-80 mph winds). Once Ike enters the Gulf, he is forecast by all major models to pass over the loop current (an area of sea surface temperatures over 85 F). Also, wind shear is forecast to be low. This means that intensification, possibly rapid, is expected over the southeastern Gulf. The indication at this time is a category one or two hurricane.

Bottom Line:

• To early to tell where, when, and how bad Ike will be at final landfall.
• Models are subject to large error and eventual shift. Use the National Hurricane Center forecast for official information!
• Landfall in Louisiana or Texas this weekend (possibly as early as Friday afternoon and as late as Saturday night).
• There is a 90% chance that Ike will contain winds of at least 80 mph at landfall and a 10% chance that Ike will contain winds of at least 125 mph at landfall. This is an average of about 100-105 mph (category two). This is similar to Hurricane Gustav.

If this discussion causes you any confusion, please disregard it. This is merely my opinion and I AM NOT AN EXPERT (yet)! Again, please use the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center for decisions regarding the protection of life and property!

Feel free to post comments or your opinion on Ike by clicking on the "Comments" link below. Please be G-rated, do not wishcast, and don't use your gut-feeling! Try to be technical. : )