Watching the Southwest Caribbean

Thursday afternoon, a system of thunderstorms known as a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) flared up over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This is associated with a tropical wave and accompanying 1009 MB low.

Development is not expected at this time as wind shear values are very high. In some places, over 45 MPH of wind shear. Wind shear is high winds at high altitudes that shear the tops off of thunderstorms and thus inhibit vertical development. Now for the catch. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are very high in areas and are at average above 85 degrees and in some locations as high as 90, especially over the Gulf Loop Current. However, computer models are very consistent in keeping high wind shear over the Gulf and Caribbean as far as the models can predict. This pretty much keeps us in the clear for the next week though I will continue to monitor this system, just in case. Below you will find an Infrared Satellite Image of the system and a wind shear analysis map.

8:45 PM CDT June 21, 2007 Infrared Satellite Image (Source: NASA)

Wind Shear Values (Source: CIMSS)