Severe weather possible in AR and OK tonight

The combination of a cold front over the High Plains, temperatures in the 70s over Arkansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas (as high as 82 in Dallas), and dew points in the 60s over the same region may lead to development of severe thunderstorms over the region tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the worst weather to be along the Arkansas-Oklahoma Border, where tornadoes (a few strong), large hail, and damaging winds will be possible.

Looking at the RUC and ETA models, it appears that the cap will weaken enough by midnight tonight to allow thunderstorm development to begin. The main question will be, what type of severe weather; there are two possibilities.

1. The storms could form as individual cells: higher tornado/hail threat.
2. The storm could merge into a single line: higher damaging wind threat with some tornadoes.

It will be interesting to see what the 6:00 pm CST balloon launches show!