Post-Storm Summary on Humberto Posted

I have posted a Post-Storm Summary on Hurricane Humberto on the website. You can access it via the home page. The report contains information on winds, pressure, storm surge, river crests, rainfall, and storm impacts. It also contains a map of Humberto's complete track and images of Humberto's landfall as seen by satellite and radar. If you have questions or comments on the report, you can post them here (click "Post a Comment" below) or on my guest book. If you would like to contribute data or damage reports, you can use the links entitled "Submit a Rainfall Report" or "Submit a Storm Report" on my home page.

Area of disturbed weather off Georgia Coast

An area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system spawned by a decaying frontal boundary, has become more organized today. This system has been declared Tropical Investigation Area 99L (Invest 99L). This system is located near 31.0 North, 79.0 West, or about 200 miles southeast of Savannah, Georgia. Right now, there are only four of the early-cycle models out. The BAMM and BAMD both show this system moving southeast before curving back to the west and making landfall near Daytona Beach, FL as a moderate tropical storm. The BAMS model shows 99L turning back to the west sooner then landfalling near Jacksonville, FL as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. The LBAR model is the only one which shows the system going out so sea; however, this model is usually only good with storm that develop in the early part of the season and storms that travel due west like Dean and Felix. On the website, I will post my preliminary forecast once more of the models come out. This could be as early as this evening, but no later than tomorrow evening, unless of course a depression forms during the next 24 hours, which appears unlikely at this time. Also, as of now, there are no scheduled hurricane hunter missions for this system.

Infrared Satellite Image of Invest 99L

Felix now a Category Five!

At 6:07 PM CDT on Sunday evening, Hurricane Hunter aircraft using a stepped frequency microwave radiometer measured maximum sustained winds at 165 MPH. Minimum central pressure was measured at 934 millibars. At these high intensities, fluctuations in intensity are common as the storm goes through what is known as an "eyewall replacement cycle".

As of this article, the computer models are forecasting Felix to make landfall as a category five hurricane near Belize City, Belize. Felix will then move across the Yucatan Peninsula and make a second landfall near La Pesca, Mexico (about halfway between Tampico and the US-Mexico Border.

The National Hurricane Center is having some uncertainty in this forecast as a low pressure currently over the northwestern Pacific Ocean is forecast to move east. When this happens a trough over low pressure will develop, causing the high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico (which is preventing northwards motion of Felix) to break down, allowing Felix to move more northerly. The key factors will be how much the high breaks down, the speed of the Pacific Low, and the speed of Hurricane Felix. My advice is for all Gulf Coast residents to continue to monitor the progress of Felix should he turn more northerly.

Infrared Satellite Image of Felix at 6:45 PM CDT 9/2/07